WEF and Marsh: Business landscape will face mounting risks in 2026

Global business leaders are facing mounting risks, as deepening geopolitical divides, along with growing technological and societal challenges, are expected to continue to shape the business landscape over the next 12 months. According to a new study from professional services firm Marsh and insurer Zurich, released at the World Economic Forum, more than half of businesses now expect the current turbulence to last into the next decade.

Every year, the second half of January sees the global economic and political elite descend en masse on a Swiss ski-resort. The extraordinary annual migration of the world’s wealthiest and most influential individuals marks the commencing of the infamous World Economic Forum (WEF).

The agenda of the World Economic Forum is shaped by the research and thought leadership of industry leaders. At the forefront of the event’s thought leaders are 100 strategic partners, an elite group of invitation-only partners selected by the Forum. Among them this year are Marsh – the professional services group behind names such as Oliver Wyman, Marsh, and Mercer – and insurance giant Zurich. With the global economy experiencing an increasingly fraught global scenario, the two risk experts have worked with the WEF to understand the issues facing businesses around the world.

According to the firms, business leaders now identify geopolitical friction as the greatest threat to their performance – ahead of climate change, an economic downturn, or social polarisation. More than 30% of leaders said that geoeconomic confrontation, or state-based armed conflict were now their main risk concerns.

Top of the pile was geoeconomic confrontation – with 18% of leaders noting the threat. At a time when the US administration has used tariff threats as a way to pressure Europe to hand over Greenland, that form of aggression is top of the headlines at present, and with the US drawing up designs on territory in South America and the Middle East, it is unlikely to be the last time it is a factor. Similarly, state-based armed conflict, feared by 14%, is unlikely to reduce in the immediate future. However, the downstream impacts of those possibilities do not seem to be registering with businesses.

Despite the Covid-19 pandemic having shown how unready the world was for a lethal viral outbreak – in a time of more geopolitical stability – just 1% said they were worried about infectious diseases now. The same number identified involuntary migration (or a refugee crisis) as an issue they felt took precedent, even though the conflicts they do priorititise would surely lead to such displacement.  

Andrew George, president for specialty at Marsh Risk, commented, “Deepening divisions are at the centre of the societal risks we all now face, from social fragmentation and inequality, to declining health and wellbeing. Despite the growing severity of these global risks, major governments are moving away from many established frameworks designed to tackle our shared challenges. As a result, divided societies are being driven closer to the brink of social instability and increased conflict.”

In the longer term, the report’s findings underline the emergence of a new age of global antagonisms, with most leaders expecting the current state of things to become the new normal. According to the study, 57% of respondents predict a turbulent or stormy outlook in the next decade – though in a 10-year outlook, environmental and technological risks rise to dominate proceedings.

Alison Martin, CEO life, health and bank distribution at Zurich, added, “Business leaders in major economies are deeply worried about pensions and public health. These gaps threaten both workforce wellbeing and social stability. Yet, it’s striking that societal risks – like declining health, lack of public infrastructure and social protections – barely register in the 10-year risk outlook, even though their effects are already reshaping our world. If we don’t act with urgency and collaboration, we risk ignoring the very threats that could define our future.”