WEF study argues climate to become world's defining risk in 10 years

As the World Economic Forum’s annual Davos summit continues in Switzerland, a study released at the event suggests the risk profile of the world is set to change drastically over the next ten years. The study by Marsh and Zurich Insurancy finds that society polarisation and disinformation are key concerns in the coming two years, but by the end of the decade, extreme weather and critical climate change events will have eclipsed these fears.

Founded in 1971, the World Economic Forum is an international non-governmental lobbying organisation, based in Cologny, Switzerland. Each year, the organisation hosts its flagship event, commonly known as Davos, in January, with business and world leaders gathering to discuss solutions to an annual theme.

The agenda is shaped by some of the world’s largest businesses – and a number of the consulting industry’s heavyweights – before government officials converge on Davos in their thousands. This year, the core theme has been set as “Rebuilding Trust” – something which will be crucial if the leaders of the corporate and government worlds are to address the existential threats they currently face.

Short and long-term global outlook

To that end, a new report has shown what is at stake in the short and long-term. Drawing on nearly two decades of original risks perception data, the Risks Report 2024 – produced by WEF, in partnership with Zurich Insurance and Marsh McLennan – warns of a global risks landscape in which progress in human development is being chipped away slowly, leaving states and individuals vulnerable to new and resurgent risks.

The report draws on the views of over 1,400 global risks experts, policy-makers and industry leaders surveyed in September 2023. Results highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world in the short-term, with the picture expected to worsen over the long-term. In the next two years, 3% of experts warn of “looming global catastrophic risks” – and with Israel’s war in Gaza looking to have set off a chain-reaction across the Middle East, alongside the continued invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the prospects of a wider international war could be among those risks. In contrast, just 1% expect that the coming period will be one of ‘negligible risk’.

In the next ten years, meanwhile, 17% anticipate that catastrophes are looming. At the same time, the number pointing to ‘upheavals and elevated risks of global catastrophes’ rises to 46%. So what looks likely to change in those intervening years?  

In the next two years, the respondents said that the greatest threat the world currently faces is misinformation and disinformation. This might be dismissed by some critics, who will point out that this comes from a distinctly ‘first world problems’ view of the situation. Millions of people are already being ‘forcibly displaced’ or killed in warzones across Europe and the Middle East, while others are being cast into poverty by rampant inflation, or left struggling to survive amid unprecedented droughts, and wild fires. From their perspectives – the idea that misinformation is the biggest problem of the day might seem absurd.

Global risks ranked by severity over the short and long term

But while the last decade had already seen concerns over so-called ‘fake news’ come to the fore – having driven populist electoral successes across Europe and the Americas – this has kicked up another notch since the advent of artificial intelligence. Now, experts fear that AI-driven misinformation – including the mass distribution of articles fabricated by AI, realistic ‘photograph’ images and even deep-fake videos used to put words in the mouths of public figures – could be used to prey on social tensions which have continued to rise amid rampant global inequality.

Addressing this remains important, because of what is at stake in the long-run. The experts polled were unanimous in listing climate related issues will be the four most important risks in ten years’ time – from extreme weather, to critical change of Earth’s systems, to the collapse of ecosystems and shortages of natural resources. If disinformation around these matters cannot be brought to heel now, then the action to mitigate them will inevitably fall short.

Carolina Klint, Chief Commercial Officer, Europe, Marsh McLennan, said, “Artificial intelligence breakthroughs will radically disrupt the risk outlook for organizations with many struggling to react to threats arising from misinformation, disintermediation and strategic miscalculation. At the same time, companies are having to negotiate supply chains made more complex by geopolitics and climate change and cyber threats from a growing number of malicious actors. It will take a relentless focus to build resilience at organisational, country and international levels – and greater cooperation between the public and private sectors – to navigate this rapidly evolving risk landscape.”