Europe becoming increasingly attractive to US polymer exporters
New duty tax reductions on polyethelene could lead to a huge boost for US exporters looking to win market share in the EU, according to a new study. However, supply chain volatility means that European buyers also value the stability that nearshoring, and production closer to home, can provide.
Polyethylene or polythene is the most commonly produced plastic. It is a polymer, primarily used for packaging. As of 2017, over 100 million tonnes of polyethylene resins are being produced annually, accounting for 34% of the total plastics market. European trade for US polyethylene PE represents a major portion of the Atlantic polymer market, with the US exporting roughly 15% of its total polyethylene output – approximately 2.3 million tonnes to Europe.
This positions Europe as its top external destination – and recent policy changes suggest this may further solidify in the future. Many different chemicals and polymers were previously subject to a 6.5% duty tax, including polyethylene. As of July 2026, the EU implemented legislation for the EU-US trade deal, under which the import duty for all inorganic products of US-origin dropped from 6.5% to zero.
With its removal, exporting to the EU has become even more favourable for US suppliers. European-produced polyethylene sits higher on the global cost curve than many other regions, including the US, and the global market is well supplied. Amid this, experts from Argus Media has attempted to answer the question: “Will US polyethylene supply continue to increase to the EU 27 and gain further market share?”
According to the consultancy’s experts, the picture may not be so clear-cut – even as the duty change makes US PE exports to Europe more favourable. While Argus Media does expect this will support further growth in the relationship between the US and the EU-27, the change should be viewed as an accelerant to an existing shift, not as the sole trigger for a sudden surge.
The researchers explain, “Europe’s growing import needs, the US cost advantage, and global oversupply, all point to higher US participation. Europe’s own producers can also emerge as vital suppliers benefiting from a tightening balance, increasing demand over the next five years and the value of short lead times.”
Competitive market
At the same time, the experts believe the European market is unlikely to be simply “flooded” with US PE, because although price will remain decisive, the pace will be moderated by buyer diversification, logistics, grade-specific balances and competition from other import sources; including Europe itself.
Should imports from the US increase faster than expected, European PE producers, focusing on customers in the continent, may step up calls for protection. The UK is investigating a dumping claim against US LLDPE imports, brought by Ineos, to this end. And amid this tension, further opportunities are emerging for European producers, suggesting the US will not simply ramp up its market share by default. To that end, the researchers conclude by pointing to a series of new companies poised to cease on this.
“Velogy has been built out of LyondellBasell’s European olefins and polyolefins assets, and will soon gain further assets when it acquires Sabic’s European olefins and polyolefins footprint,” the report summarises. “Repsol is bringing on line its Sines plant, one of the few investments in new European capacity this decade. And Ineos will be well placed to compete in Europe across ethylene derivatives with the onset of its Project One in Antwerp next year. These domestic suppliers are all well placed to benefit from a tighter European polyethylene market. With the volatility and global supply shocks of recent years, buyers do still value a short supply chain and short lead times are vital from a risk perspective.”
