Nuclear capacity must triple by 2050, Capgemini argues

If the world is to meet its net zero targets by 2050, the consumption of electricity will need to quadruple, to accommodate for the phasing out of burning fuels like petrol and gas. A new study from Capgemini suggests that nuclear power will need to form a crucial part of the climate mitigation efforts, if the world is to make up for lost time without losing capacity for energy production.

Various reports suggest that the world is already behind with its efforts to decarbonise human activity. And while many countries like the UK assumed ‘climate leader’ status on their early efforts to cut C02 emissions, many of those nations did so by picking low-hanging fruit, and are now struggling with more difficult challenges, such as decarbonising manufacturing and construction.

Amid this, the recent COP28 summit called for the international community to begin phasing out fossil fuels. While critics point out that there is no timeframe set for this phasing out, the move has also exposed a major limitation of the world’s previous efforts to transition to clean energy. The infrastructure is still far short of what is needed to accommodate the huge rise in electricity demand that this will necessitate.

The latest firm to examine this issue is Capgemini. New research from the technology consultancy suggests that electricity consumption will have to quadruple by 2050 to hit decarbonisation objectives. Renewable electricity capacity additions are driving the shift in electricity supply, but their current growth is far below what is needed and must triple to meet 2050 targets.

According to Capgemini, more than 75% of the electricity supply will need to come from wind and solar. To meet this demand, global renewable capacity as it is now needs to triple – and investment will have to accelerate significantly to enable that.

While $1.3 trillion of energy transition investments in 2022 was a record, significantly outpacing spending on fossil fuels, Capgemini contends that this would need to accelerate to $5 trillion per annum to align with a net zero emissions pathway. In 2022,renewables capacity additions set a record with an annual addition of 340GW and 2023 should be another record year. However, this growth is far below what is needed to achieve net zero carbon in 2050 as global renewable capacity should grow by 2400 GW over the 2022-2027 period (i.e. an annual average growth of 480GW).

At the same time, this will also require the expansion of electrical grids – which need to grow from 75M kms to 200M kms, and become smarter with more stationary storage, sensors, and intelligent exploitation of large masses of data. But on top of everything else, the continued deterioration of international relations means these changes – which depend on international co-operation – are under even more strain. To that end, Capgemini suggests that a “nuclear renaissance” could be the energy transition’s great white hope.

The researchers concluded, “Reaching decarbonisation goals will not happen without nuclear and so it is imperative there is a focus on extending its capacity. Nuclear capacity will have to triple by 2050 to achieve net zero carbon. This means reaching 870GW capacity by 2050, from 390GW today. Achieving this will require not only the development of large reactors and SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) but also a commitment to extending safely the life of current reactors.”

According to the analysts, the capacity added by nuclear power could enable countries to work around ‘sovereignty’ issues in particular. With some 250 stations hosted around by 2050, Capgemini contends that “in-country” energy sources would help insulate countries from “the ever-evolving geopolitical disruption” – from the escalating trade war between the US and China, to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to the continuing Israel-Gaza war.

Green light?

Green-lighting a nuclear renaissance might meet some resistance, however, as it comes at a time when public trust in nuclear power is at a low. At the close of 2023, an investigation from The Guardian revealed a worsening leak of radioactive liquid from one of the “highest nuclear hazards in the UK” – a decaying silo at the Sellafield plant, from which radioactive material is leaking into the ground. The leak is likely to continue to 2050 – and was revealed after decades of warnings had apparently gone unheeded.

In 2006, the Irish government tried to take action against Sellafield by referring it to a UN tribunal over concerns about Sellafield’s impact on the environment. And earlier, an EU report in 2001 warned an accident at Sellafield could be worse than Chornobyl – pointing to events that could trigger an atmospheric release of radioactive waste at the plant included explosions and air crashes.

Sellafield was also found to have been the target of cyber-attacks, by groups linked to China and Russia. The extent to which nuclear power presents a solution to ‘sovereignty’ issues remains to be seen then – as while it could generate energy for a nation without depending on external input, it could also provide hostile actors with a deadly target in the event of increased hostilities.