UK risks squandering early net zero leadership
While various sources suggest the country is lagging behind in its transition to a zero carbon economy, a new study contends that the UK may actually be half-way to net zero. However, the hardest part of the journey may lie ahead, as despite cutting total emissions, the UK still faces big challenges in the building, industry and transport sectors.
Recent months have seen criticism mount for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has been accused of backsliding on many of the government’s previous climate commitments. With an election on the horizon in 2023, Sunak has attempted to appeal to Conservative Party base voters by appearing to push green policies down his list of priorities – with his ministers reportedly examining ways to prevent the spread of London’s Ultra Low Emissions Zone, and delaying a ban for the sale of new combustion-engine vehicles that had been due to come into play in 2030.
This came after the Climate Change Committee (CCC)– an independent non-departmental public body, formed under the Climate Change Act to advise the UK and devolved governments on tackling and preparing for climate change – had already issued a stinging assessment of the government’s net zero efforts. Stating that targets were being missed on almost every front, a report from the body suggested that fewer homes were insulated in 2022 under the government-backed scheme than the year before, despite soaring energy bills and a cost of living crisis, while there was little progress on transport emissions, a lack of coherent programme for behaviour change, and no decision on hydrogen for home heating – among other issues.
Speaking at the time, the CCC’s outgoing Chair Lord Deben said the UK had “lost the leadership” on climate action, adding that the committee’s confidence that the government would meet its shorter-term carbon-cutting goals by 2030 was even lower than last year. By the CCC’s reckoning, he also noted that while greenhouse gas emissions had been falling by a little under 3% a year, this would need to double over the next eight years for the UK to meet its 2030 net zero targets.
Despite that withering assessment though, some sources still retain optimism in the government’s current trajectory. According to new research from KPMG, while the current levels of incremental change the world is seeing on emissions is insufficient to meet global net zero targets, the UK is well on the way to meeting those longer-term goals.
According to KPMG’s ‘2023 Net Zero Readiness Report’, the UK’s “early adoption of renewables has seen significant progress” for net zero delivery by 2050. The firm’s researchers added that the country has cut greenhouse gas emissions by almost half since 1990 – one of the best records of any developed country, though judging by the lacklustre efforts for net zero globally, that may be damning its efforts with faint praise.
The study noted that roughly half of the UK’s electricity now comes from low carbon sources – mainly renewables with some nuclear energy. Coal is a rarely used standby option, and renewable generation continues to grow rapidly, shown by the electricity system operator National Grid registering a record low in Great Britain’s electricity carbon intensity of 33gCO2e per kilowatt hour on 10 April 2023, compared with quarterly averages of 400-500gCO2e from 2010-14.
KPMG also noted that the UK has also led efforts on requiring companies to report on climate risks and plans, improving transparency and encouraging action, measures that many other countries are adopting. This has helped the country’s economy expand by around two-thirds in size while making these changes – something KPMG UK’s Head of Energy and Natural Resources Simon Virley suggested “shows you can decarbonise while still growing”.
Past performance is no indicator
However, much like the CCC, KPMG’s findings also warned that the progress made may also not give the whole picture. While estimating the UK to be half way on the road to its net zero 2050 goals, the report suggested the hardest steps are still to come, and progress on those fronts is harder to see.
Since 2005, the UK has seen carbon emissions in its energy and waste sectors plummet by 64%. Energy excluding electricity has also seen a 46% fall. But the UK still faces an uphill battle to reduce emissions on transport, buildings, and industry – which collectively these three sectors made up 60% of all greenhouse emissions in 2022, yet have seen comparatively little progress. With 61% of manufacturers still shrugging when asked if they can hit 2030 targets, it may not come as a surprise that industry has only reduced emissions by 36% since 2005.
Looking at decarbonising buildings which have seen an even lower emissions reduction of 15%, meanwhile, decarbonising heating is a key front where the UK government has slacked. KPMG found that the UK government’s ambition to install 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2028 was currently not on track to be met by action. The actual installation figure is around one-ninth of the target and lagging some of its European neighbours, who have reduced emissions by less, but will soon be positioned to exceed the UK’s current progress. Similarly, in transport – which reduced emissions by 16% – while EV adoption has been strong with 23% of cars sold in 2022 being electric, progress on aviation and shipping is nowhere near the same level.
At the same time, agriculture is a conspicuous laggard when it comes to the drive to net zero. By KPMG’s reckoning, the sector has only reduced its emissions by 5% in 18 years – while making the least improvement in terms of emissions intensity of any sector too. This makes especially worrying reading, given that the government’s updated carbon budget delivery plan was analysed by the WWF earlier in 2023, which found that the total projected emissions reductions from now until 2037 for agriculture and land use were 58% less than the emissions reductions figures underpinning the original net zero strategy – an equivalent to the emissions of the entire UK building sector.
Speaking on the further findings, Virley noted, “Past achievements are no guarantee of future success, and we are seeing many other nations catch up on the technology and policies needed, creating greater competition for green investment. Getting to net zero can deliver warmer homes, lower bills, and a cleaner environment. It will require a huge effort. But it also provides great opportunities for jobs and investment, which we will miss out on if we pull back now.”
