Futurist Scott Steinberg warns the ‘safe’ business move may now be the most dangerous

Scott Steinberg has spent decades helping leaders prepare for disruption before it becomes a crisis. We sat down with him to discuss how leaders can think more like futurists, why resilience engineering matters, and how organisations can build strategies that stay useful when markets shift without warning.

In your recently launched book, you introduced a model that help leaders build more future-ready organisations. Can you elaborate?

Indeed, in ‘The Shape of the Future’ we introduce a five-step system known as FORMA: flexibility, optimisability, resilience, modularity and adaptability.

FORMA is a design thinking framework that explains why some systems thrive amid uncertainty and disruption while others collapse. The five interconnected principles help organisations design solutions that are future-proof and offers a blueprint for continuous innovation.

Central is that the model shows what it takes to succeed – whatever tomorrow brings. Bring successful is not about predicting the future, it’s about building strategies ready to greet it.

A useful way to understand the FORMA approach is to think about the body’s immune system.

It is flexible because it can respond to threats it has never encountered before. It is optimisable because it learns from each encounter and responds more effectively next time. It is resilient because it continues to function even when parts are damaged. It is modular because it is made up of different subsystems that can operate independently. Most importantly, it is adaptive because it is constantly evolving to meet new challenges.

How can organisations improve their ability to anticipate market shifts?

In a fast-changing world, it is critically important for companies and their executives to think more like futurists. When planning for the future, I recommend triangulating data and looking at contextual signals to detect shifts in the market.

In plain English, that means looking at global events and developments from three different angles: quantitative analysis, qualitative observation and cross-industry signals.

For quantitative analysis, you need to look at data such as purchasing habits, payment flows and customer acquisition metrics. These can help identify patterns and structural changes as they begin to form.

That should be combined with qualitative observation. Leaders need to watch customer sentiment, emerging narratives at conferences and events, and areas attracting academic research, venture capital or regulatory attention. These signals give a clearer sense of where the market may move next.

Cross-industry signals also matter. Shifts in adjacent sectors, such as AI infrastructure, e-commerce platforms and digital ecosystems, often foreshadow how other markets will evolve.

What does resilience engineering mean in a business context?

Resilience engineering means designing systems and organisations that can absorb shocks, adapt to change and recover quickly from disruption. 

The goal is to bounce forward by learning and growing from each encounter. For companies, resilience needs to be built across several dimensions. The first is operational resilience. Organisations need flexible technology infrastructures, cloud-enabled systems and modular payment architectures, so they can maintain service continuity during market volatility or disruption.

The second is customer resilience. Businesses need to build relationships with clients across multiple channels, including mobile apps, social networks and partner ecosystems. This reduces dependency on any single customer interface.

The third is organisational resilience. Companies need cultures that support experimentation, rapid learning and responsible risk-taking. That helps teams adapt faster to technological and business change.

What separates organisations that survive disruption from those that use it to grow?

Risky is quickly becoming the new safe. In a constantly changing world, the biggest mistake a business or leader can make is to sit still and do the same thing while the world changes around them. The smartest and most successful businesses are intelligent risk-takers. 

Successful innovation and adaptation are not about taking huge leaps of faith or gambling everything on one move. The most successful businesses take an approach based on constant experimentation. They build a portfolio of small, smart, cost-effective and strategic bets. These provide insight into changing markets and customer habits.

Together, those bets drive learning and growth. They also allow leaders to test different directions and only move forward when they find firm ground.

Finally, how can leaders design strategies that remain flexible when conditions change?

Leaders need to create solutions that do not leave them dependent on a single customer base, technology or market. The aim is to choose strategies and solutions that allow the organisation to pivot or change direction when needed. 

Before committing to any initiative, leaders should ask themselves three questions.

First, financial gains aside, how can the organisation win from this opportunity? That could mean gaining new capabilities or resources that can be applied to other ventures.

Second, how adaptable are the strategies and solutions being considered? If they fall short, how readily can tools, technologies and insights from those ventures be repurposed or used to pivot to new opportunities?

Third, where could the effort in one business area quickly translate into other contexts or markets?

Before making any business investment, including time, effort and energy, leaders need to look beyond pure financial return. They need to assess how well each initiative supports their wider goals and strategies. Most importantly, if unexpected developments challenge even the best-laid plans, leaders need to know how quickly those efforts can become a springboard to new ventures.

About Scott Steinberg: A globally recognised futurist, business strategist and innovation expert, Scott Steinberg has advised more than 2,000 brands, including IBM and PwC, on how to respond to rapid technological and market change.