Businesses must reckon with fragmenting views of public to stay relevant

Since 2024’s general election, polls have painted a dramatic shift in the public’s voting intention for a future government. As the traditionally two-party-picture fragments, a new study from SEC Newgate has suggested ways in which businesses might appeal to changing sensibilities of the electorate.

The last general election was fought on fine ideological margins, between two brands of managerial conservatism. Rishi Sunak headed the Conservative government, which after more than 14 years in some kind of power, had worn its welcome thin with the UK public, while Keir Starmer’s Labour opposition was far-removed from the leftism of Jeremy Corbyn – working consistently to show it was now a ‘friend’ to big business, while also hedging to the right on topics including immigration and foreign policy.

Labour would eventually be swept to power with a landslide victory, and one of the party’s largest ever parliamentary majorities. But as the dust settled, it became clear that this was not thanks to the tactic of triangulation winning over tired conservatives with a small ‘c’. The party received a lower number of votes nationally than it did in 2019 – when it lost by a wide margin. What had actually favoured the incoming government was a number of voters who had backed the Tories at previous polls either switched to the hard-right option of Reform UK, or stayed home completely.

The 2024 general election ultimately saw turnout of 59.7%, the lowest at a general election since 2001; while turnout fell 7.6% from 2019 – the largest drop in turnout between elections since 1997 and 2001. Unlike the last time Labour enjoyed such a huge majority, in 1997, however, there has been no honeymoon period for Starmer’s government. And with right-wing voters who dropped out of the last race increasingly backing Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, the polls going into the next general election (some time before the end of 2029) look to have shattered the previous two-party grip on power previously enjoyed by Labour and the Conservatives.

While the Tories have failed to convince their former voters of any restored competence, Labour has also continued to alienate its remaining electorate – to the extent the Green Party has recently polled equally to it at around 14%. There is, of course, a long way to go until the nation goes back to the polls – and even one day is a long time in politics – but on current viewing, many people will need to contend with a new set of dominant ideological norms in the near future. That does not only refer to those vying for election, either.

A new study from SEC Newgate has sought to examine the electorate’s views on a number of hot-button issues, in order to recommend how businesses might adapt to the views of their customers. And according to the ‘Managing Reputational Risk and Opportunity in a Fragmented World’ paper, the picture is much more complicated than it previously was, if companies intend to play that game going forward.

A rock and a hard place

Speaking out on environmental issues and values are particularly supported, signalling that the UK public expect businesses to communicate about their environmental impact, and to engage authentically. However, age and political stance temper expectations – meaning that trying to please everyone is becoming an impossibility.

Notably, Gen Z – the demographic who will be consuming goods in the UK for the longest time from now – are more likely to support businesses speaking out on social issues, so failing to do so may alienate them in a way that means businesses take a long-term knock to their reputations, and wallets. This is also true of Green Party voters, as might well be expected – and with the party apparently in the ascendency, that might be something firms consider.

However, in the short-term, older demographics, and Reform voters, are less likely to support speaking out on environmental issues and social issues “if it will make a business unpopular with the government”. This suggests that should a business speak out in favour of progressive social issues, and against the ideology embodied by a prospective Reform government, it could face boycotts and protests as seen in the ‘culture wars’ of Trump’s America.

Elsewhere, SEC Newgate also found that the UK public as a whole wants to see more “localisation” – which may or may not be a euphemism, depending on the specific topic. The 54% concerned the UK is not doing enough to ensure it produces food locally, or to secure energy independence (both rising above 60% among Reform voters) might, arguably, be born of concerns about a fragmented and chaotic global supply chain that has caused tomato shortages, and soaring energy prices. But the 42% who argue the UK is ‘too dependent on foreign workers’ – at a time when ‘reducing’ that dependence would essentially cause the collapse of the UK’s social care and health systems – seems more like something born from spiteful prejudice.

“Localisation”

On these findings, SEC Newgate’s report suggested, “Localisation resonates particularly with Reform voters. With Reform UK’s growing popularity and the broader appeal of local action, businesses may want to consider how to act locally and communicate about local operations if they are seeking improved public perceptions.”

This does open something of a can of worms, however. And again, businesses taking such an approach will need to be aware that they may well be pushing away other consumers.

Citing Reform voters – supporters of a party which has previously suggested plans for mass deportations, and the abolition of the indefinite right to stay for immigrants – in particular here as the kind of voter businesses “may want” to appeal to opens up a number of key questions. While in some cases, “local action” might be palatable to other voters – for example, local food production could help reduce the carbon impact of importing it, something Greens, Lib Dems or Labour voters might not inherently baulk at – it is not entirely clear how businesses might realign their operations to “act locally” when it comes to becoming less “reliant on foreign workers”.

Or at least, to “act locally” on that issue in a way that doesn’t utterly alienate the 58% of customers who did not say. Never mind to “act locally” to become less “reliant on foreign workers” in a way that would violate current employment and discrimination law.