Study suggests London won't see many more white Christmases

Snow has long been an essential part of Christmas iconography – but a new report suggests that the chances of a white Christmas are growing slimmer by the year. A geo-spatial analysis from BearingPoint notes that historically, London only has a 2% chance of snow on December 25th – and climate change is likely to reduce that further in the future.

Until the 1840s, sending cards of any form by post in Britain was rare. For most people, it was too expensive. But that changed with the introduction of the Penny Post in 1840. The new decree meant any letter weighing under half-an-ounce (around 14 grams) could be delivered for a single penny.

The change was not only a boon for the postal service - making it affordable to spread holiday cheer by sending Christmas cards – but also created a time capsule of holiday traditions at the time. Looking back at the earliest common Christmas cards, one of the first things to notice - beyond how utterly creepy a lot of the images are - is that snow isn't all that common.

In fact, the association of snowfall with Christmas is possibly not as old as most people think. While a number of the traditions associated with the festival were carried over from pre-Christian and pagan winter solstice celebrations across Europe, snow being an archetypical element was something which only really emerged in the 19th century.

This is partly Europe and the US endured a ‘little ice age’ lasting from roughly 1550 to 1850. The period saw winter fairs often held on frozen rivers. This kind of occurrence would go on to be immortalised in the background of the era's seasonal entertainment. For example, snow and ice feature heavily in Charles Dickens’ ‘A Christmas Carol’. These stories informed many more decades of festive imagery, harking back to those times. In turn, that imagery has been appropriated by products marketed by US businesses at the end of the year – tying snow to some of the season’s most popular commodities. As a result, a white Christmas has become a normalised expectation - even as it has become less and less common.

In actuality, though, snow at Christmas is quite rare. Illustrating this, global consulting firm BearingPoint has sought to show which of its own offices are most historically likely to see snow, this Christmas. BearingPoint’s experts committed themselves to a geo-spatial analysis that took into account the historical averages of weather around December 25th throughout the years, and drew up a series of probabilities suggesting that – unsurprisingly – the firm’s colleagues in the Nordics are best placed to enjoy a white Christmas.

However, the prospects of a white Christmas in the UK are slim, judging on calculations based on the last four decades of data. BearingPoint's colleagues in London have a historic probability of snow on December 25th of around 2.4%. Beyond this, BearingPoint hastened to add that none of this was a 'prediction' – and that actual snowfall on December 25th varies significantly each year, influenced by an array of climatic factors.

With that in mind, the firm cautioned that a white Christmas stands to become a more remote prospect each year. Climate change is impacting weather patterns like never before. In that context, the researchers noted that the world can expect “changes in temperatures, precipitation and climate zones”, all of which means that past performance is no guarantee of future results when it comes to seasonal snow.

In a sullen seasonal warning on the state of play relating to global warming, BearingPoint commented, “As we confront the global challenges of climate change, the world anticipates shifts in temperatures, precipitation, and climate zones. These transformations will impact the probability of snowfall on future December 25th. Beyond the joy of a white Christmas, let's strive for sustainability, recognising that our actions today shape the Christmas of tomorrow.”