International aerospace and defence sector optimistic

17 June 2015 Consultancy.uk

The international aerospace and defence sectors are optimistic and expect strong growth in the coming years, research by Roland Berger shows. Despite their optimism, the industry leaders foresee challenges ahead, with geopolitical unrest listed as the number one risk to growth. This at the same time boosts the assumption that public defence spending will increase again in the years to come. The Middle East is the most attractive defence export market, followed by the US.

In its recently released Aerospace & Defence Management Issues Radar 2015, titled ‘Tailwind for the aerospace industry - Aerospace & Defence’, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants researches the trends on market perspective and HR management in the international aerospace and defence sectors. For the research, the consulting firm surveyed 150 of the industry’s top international managers from companies representing a broad range of civil and military segments and positions in the value chain, from OEMs to pure service providers.

Expectations of Market Conditions in the Civil A&D Sector

Growth
The research highlights that the executives of the international aerospace and defence sector are feeling optimistic, with 73% of respondents expressing their optimism* as they expect the civil aerospace and defence market to grow for at least five more years.

Although the vast majority of respondents express their optimism, they do foresee challenges ahead, with ‘geopolitical crises’ named as the #1 risk factor to the cycles of growth. The economic downturn in China is seen as the second most likely risk factor, mentioned by 25%, followed by the economic crisis in Europe (20%) and rising fuel/energy costs (9%).

Possible risk factors

Defence spending
The research shows that the defence industry leaders are also optimistic when it comes to public spending, with 67% expecting the decline in European defence to come to an end, with 15% foreseeing growth in the next two years. According to Roland Berger, the deteriorating geopolitical situations in the Ukraine and the Middle East contribute to this judgment, as do on-going security concerns closer to home.

In addition, agreed upon targets will also have an effect on spending, Robert Thomson, Partner at Roland Berger, explains: “NATO member states are coming under increasing pressure to reach the agreed target of spending two percent of their gross domestic product on defence.”

Public spending on defence

The Middle East is seen as the most attractive export market for defence equipment and named by 25% as their top choice. The US ranks in second when it comes to its attractiveness, with 15% of the votes, followed by South-East Asia (14%). India has fallen to fourth place shares its ranking with Europe, both at 13%.

Most Attractive Export Markets for Defense Equipment

Commenting on the survey, Manfred Hader, Partner at Roland Berger, says: “The international aerospace and defence sectors have done well in managing the past few years’ challenges around the development of new programs and globalization all in all. But in the long run, the only companies that will be successful are those that now succeed in managing operational processes effectively, producing efficiently, and developing their human resources strategically.”

* Recent research by McKinsey & Company into the defence industry also highlights the optimism among defence industry leaders.

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BDO administrates Flybmi amid aviation industry turbulence

21 February 2019 Consultancy.uk

Around 400 jobs in the UK, Germany, Sweden and Belgium have been lost following the collapse of commercial airliner Flybmi. The administration, which will be overseen by professionals from BDO, constitutes the third failure of a commercial carrier since the start of 2019, with the industry having suffered from sustained turbulence for the duration of last year.

The initial 4 a.m. announcement informing customers that Britain’s longest-surviving airline, Monarch, had been placed into administration meant that many passengers arrived at airports only to find their flights cancelled and holiday plans inconvenienced, while many were left with no means of returning to the UK. Beyond the immediate ramifications, however, the collapse of Monarch also drew to a close six years of steady improvement for commercial carriers across the world. 

Since the economic shock of 2011 – an echo of the 2008 financial crisis – the number of commercial airlines falling into administration across the world declined at a relatively consistent rate. According to data from ProtectMyHoliday.com – barring an anomaly of a year which saw only four airlines falter in 2014 – the number of collapses in the sector declined continuously. In 2017, the figure stood at just 10, compared to a huge 46 in 2011, and a  staggering 61 in 2008.

Global number of airlines to have failed since 2005

Following Monarch’s precipitous fall, however, the situation once more seems to have commenced a nose-dive in the following year. 15 airlines failed in 2018, and less than two months into 2019, another three have followed suit. That puts 2019 on pace to reach 24 airline collapses. 

The latest of these firms to spiral into administration is Flybmi, an East Midlands-based airline which until February operated 17 regional jet aircraft on routes to 25 European cities. The company operated more than 600 flights a week from regional airports including Bristol, Newcastle, Aberdeen and the East Midlands.

News of the firm’s demise emerged as it cancelled hundreds of flights at short notice over the space of a single weekend, leaving many passengers stranded and out of pocket. Flybmi advised customers to seek refunds from credit and debit card companies, or to rebook with other airlines, before eventually appointing administrators from professional services firm BDO.

The appointment, initially reported by UK paper The Telegraph, came following a weekend of chaos, with passengers and staff desperate for information, but without an administrator to turn to, as authorities had remained tight-lipped on the matter. The process was reportedly delayed until the following Monday by a Scottish law which prevents insolvency specialists being appointed over the weekend.

Turbulence ahead

Commenting on the task at hand, BDO Business Restructuring Partner and joint administrator Tony Nygate said, “As joint administrators, we are taking all necessary steps to ensure customers, staff and suppliers are supported through the administration process. Our job is to maximise recoveries and minimise distress for all parties, acting as smoothly and swiftly as possible.”

Administrators from the firm now face questions over what preparations were in place prior to the carrier’s collapse, including actions that could have softened the blow for thousands of stranded passengers. Meanwhile, some 376 employees in the UK, Germany, Sweden and Belgium have been made redundant, with the remainder staying to assist with the administration. Unions have since demanded urgent talks with Flybmi’s administrators, with Unite, which represents about 40 of the airline’s 376 staff, calling for a buyer to be found in order to ensure wages are paid in full.

Unite Regional Secretary Paresh Patel told the press, “Unite is shocked and saddened by the news that Flybmi has gone into administration…  This is a terrible blow for the airline’s workforce and their families, as well as the East Midlands economy. We will be giving maximum support to our members who work for the airline across the UK at this very difficult time for them.”

The Brexit process seems to have played a key role in the downfall of Flybmi. Airlines are required by law to purchase carbon credits to offset their carbon emissions – something which until recently was subsidised through a free allocation of credits by European authorities. Now, however, Brussels has excluded UK firms from their allocation of credits ahead of the UK’s divorce from the EU in March, and it is anticipated that this may  well lead to more casualties in both the airline industry, and the broader British economy.

Glen Flannery, a Partner at law firm CMS, told The Telegraph, “The European Commission has started to implement its No Deal Brexit contingency plans. With effect from January 1st, it has temporarily suspended the UK’s free allocation of carbon allowances, auctioning, and the exchange of international credits. This has created a huge amount of uncertainty for UK participants, the full effects of which have yet to play out.”