The LED industry will realize an annual sales growth of 30% until 2020, while the total lighting market will only show 3 to 6% sales growth per year in that period. At the same time, LED represents 7% of the lightning mix. Due to the explosive growth, the LED share in the total lightning market will grow to 37% in 2015 and even to 64% in 2020. This is evident from the report “The Global Light market Study 2012” by McKinsey & Company that was recently presented on the Smart Lighting congress in Düsseldorf.
LEDs are mostly used for general lightning, followed by applications in cars. LED lightning for backlights of television and computer screens, that has especially received attention in recent years, will in time only form a marginal part of the production, thus the strategy and management consulting firm.
Challenges for the LED industry
At the same time, the consultants do warn that a lot needs to be done before this numbers will actually be reached. The initial costs are, for example, still high. The high purchase costs of LEDs cannot yet be earned back through the lower power consumption. McKinsey's consultants expect that prices will only have dropped enough for the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of LEDs to be lower than of fluorescent lamps by the end of 2014. Consumers consider the TCO as the most important factor in their purchase, according to the report.
The quality of LED lightning is also insufficient. Consumers are not unanimously positive about the colour and atmosphere of light and the reliability of the LEDs. McKinsey consultant Arthur Jaunich gave himself as an example: “I bought a led lamp that was broken after four days. That does not make me happy.”
Availability and acceptance
The consumer acceptance of led lightning varies per country. The most positive reaction to the advent of LEDs is seen in Japan, which may be caused by the very high electricity prices in that country. There are also big differences in the availability of LEDs. In the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), LEDs are still limited available, but in Europe the new LED lighting is obtainable everywhere.